Despite widespread concern in February, the Stockholm Stock Exchange has held on and is among the European bourses that recorded the sharpest rise in the last month. Since the turn of the year, the broad OMXSPI has advanced by over 5 percent to new record highs. It is in line with European stocks, but significantly better than, for example, the New York stock exchanges, where the broad large-cap S&P 500 index remains just positive for the year.
Already at the end of last year, Swedish investors began to breathe morning air, according to a quarterly survey by asset manager JP Morgan Asset Management.
More than half of those surveyed in the fourth quarter then said they expected the stock market to rise in the next six months. The increase is primarily seen among people between the ages of 16 and 39, men and lower-income households.
The latter particularly stands out according to Caroline Karlander, investment specialist at JP Morgan Asset Management. Since the beginning of 2024, households with a gross income below SEK 300,000 were no longer as optimistic about the development of the stock markets.
– It still feels positive. We’re seeing increasing optimism, even the lowest wage households are starting to turn a little positive.
Overall, this means that the investor index has risen to its highest level in more than a year, although it is still far from the levels that prevailed before the US imposed massive tariffs on the rest of the world last spring, sending stock markets worldwide plummeting.
The situation in the outside world is by far the most common reason investors believe the stock market could fall. Almost two thirds believe it has negative effects. When it comes to the situation in their own country, more and more people see positive effects on the stock market from the development of the economy, the interest rate situation and inflation.
“Geopolitics remains the biggest concern of those we interviewed,” says Caroline Karlander.
This is what the survey shows Swedes continued to invest in global funds, but became more skeptical about funds focused on the US, for example. The same picture emerges from the outflow statistics from the Association of Fund Companies, which showed net outflows from North American funds towards the end of last year, while developments in global funds were somewhat weaker in the final months of last year.
However, in January fund savers net sold global funds along with North American funds and instead invested in Europe and Sweden and some Asian markets. Among other things, inflows increased to Japan, where the stock market hit record highs on hopes that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi would impose a more expansionary fiscal policy.
Globally, inflows into European stocks have hit new records in recent weeks, according to the Financial Times, pointing to high valuations and high uncertainty in the US technology sector as a driving factor.
To completely condemn the USA But this could be an expensive story, according to Caroline Karlander, pointing to the country’s continued strong investment cycle, driven by big tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon.
In order for the Swedish and European stock markets to keep up, it is necessary for corporate profits to rise significantly.
– We have to ensure that profits really come back, that companies actually have the courage to invest a little more and hire new employees. After all, the USA has been very resilient, where we have the biggest investment boom of our lifetime.
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