How did Ukraine respond to the US and Israeli attacks on Iran?
President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed them and emphasized the Iranian regime’s terror against its own people and its open support for Russia in the war in Ukraine. Zelensky has also offered his expertise to countries that have supported Ukraine and now must defend themselves against Iranian drones and missiles: Ukraine has long and unique experience.
Iran has long supported Russia militarily. What does it mean if support from Iran stops?
According to Ukrainian authorities, Russia has used 57,000 drones of Iranian origin in its attacks against Ukraine since the start of the war of invasion.
Russia is of course weakened without Iranian support, but is not dependent on it. But Russia has also recently lost its allies in Venezuela and Syria and is now more isolated than it was a few years ago. What remains is China and North Korea supporting Russia with technology and soldiers.
The question of support can also be turned around: Russia had previously promised to support Iran in the event of an American attack, including with weapons worth over 4.5 billion Swedish crowns. However, it is now highly uncertain whether Moscow will keep these promises. When the United States attacked Iran this summer, Russia remained, if not neutral, at least passive. Putin then pointed out, among other things, that two million Russians and former Soviet citizens live in Israel.
How does the situation in the Middle East affect the peace talks on the war in Ukraine?
It is unlikely that the next round will take place in Abu Dhabi this week, as already discussed. The Gulf states have become Iran’s target, and the US leadership has other things to do.
What the war in the Middle East means for the negotiations themselves – and whether it increases Russia’s willingness to reach an agreement – remains to be seen. According to Zelensky’s chief of staff, Russia has reportedly agreed to Ukraine receiving security guarantees from the United States in the context of peace. However, whether this concession is related to the situation in Iran is uncertain.
