The article in brief
● The future of the EU is at stake if climate change slows, warns Frans Timmermans.
● Major powers can dominate Europe if energy dependence continues.
● “What is happening now is dangerous – we run the risk of becoming vassal states,” says the former EU chief.
It is our faulty imagination that is the problem. “We simply don’t see how serious the situation is or how quickly it can get worse,” says Frans Timmermans, a Dutch social democrat and thought leader on EU climate policy.
He compares it to the time before the collapse of the Soviet Union.
– Nobody thought it was possible – until it became real.
Now we may be facing a similar situation with major upheavals in the way the world works. The signs are all around us, says Timmermans. He is particularly concerned about the way Donald Trump is gradually taking control of the American state apparatus.
– He has this personalization of power in common with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. It’s very worrying.
In the midst of this geopolitical situation In the wake of the upheaval, a divided EU is emerging, which has apparently also lost control of what Frans Timmermans sees as the only path to lasting sovereignty for the Union: climate change.
If the EU’s climate transition has a face, it is Frans Timmermans. In the corridors of Brussels he was nicknamed “Klimazar” until his departure in autumn 2023. The package presented by him and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2019, backed by a basically united EU, was described at the time as the most ambitious climate policy in the world.
Now the situation has changed. Criticism of EU climate policy is a powerful stick for right-wing politicians across the Union. When new climate targets were set on February 10, the EU withdrew from several previously decided measures. Timmerman’s entire prestige project is in flux.
The EU’s new climate policy – the ambitions have been scaled back
On February 10th, the EU Parliament set new climate targets for the EU by 2040. In several places the ambitions have been scaled back from previous promises and recommendations.
● Emissions must be reduced by 90 percent by 2040 compared to 1990, but 5 percent must be achieved through climate action in poor countries. It contradicts the recommendation of the EU Climate Science Council.
● The expansion of EU emissions trading to include transport, among other things, will be brought forward by one year to 2028.
● The decision to require zero emissions for newly produced cars from 2035 will be rejected and replaced with requirements for 90 percent lower emissions. Part of the goal can be achieved by using fossil-free steel.
The EU’s long-term goal is to be a climate-neutral continent by 2050. Emissions must be reduced by 55 percent by 2030. By 2024, emissions will have fallen by 37 percent.
The goals for 2030 are assessed by the EU Commission as achievable, but require a much faster expansion of renewable energies and energy efficiency in the coming years.
Source: European Commission (press release from February 10, Climate Action Progress Report 2025)
Timmermans explains the turnaround – or perhaps the braking – with two factors. First: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
– We were forced to get rid of cheap Russian gasoline at lightning speed. This has created an unequal competitive situation between European, American and Chinese industries, which has presented us with major economic problems.
Secondly, the center-right party, which, according to Timmermans, “succumbed to the temptation” to drag the climate issue into the culture war.
– It is the biggest setback in recent years. It creates so much uncertainty about whether we will honor our agreements. This in turn hinders the necessary investments.
Braking poses no risk just climate change. According to Timmermans, even the survival of the EU is at risk.
– What is happening now is, frankly, dangerous. If we only replace Russian fossil fuels with American or Gulf states, we will be exposed to blackmail. We will become vassal states dominated by the USA, China or Russia. That’s why I say that the name of the given green should be changed to given freedom. Then everyone understands what it’s about.
In contrast to the other major geopolitical players, the EU lacks power over its own energy, he emphasizes. The EU has managed to phase out a large part of Russian gas, which has fallen by 75 percent since 2021. However, total gas imports have only declined slightly. Instead, according to the EU Commission’s own information, the EU has quadrupled gas imports from the USA.
– We create a new dependency instead. It’s never good to be dependent on a foreign producer, and it’s especially bad to be dependent on Trump.
Battery production is one of them Another problem for which the EU relies primarily on China. Timmermans believes that this could lead to a major military-strategic disadvantage.
– A modern soldier carries around 20 kilos of batteries for all the equipment. And look at the war in Ukraine, it’s all about battery-powered drones. In the future, aircraft, land vehicles, naval ships, submarines – all will be battery-powered.
The Chinese have understood this, says Frans Timmermans – and their huge investment in electric cars should also be viewed from this perspective. A market is emerging for the development of advanced batteries, which will then benefit the defense industry.
– Investing in electric cars is a strategic investment in their future defense capabilities. As Europeans, we must understand this too.
China has major government investments in the energy transition. It has long been taboo in the EU – should we think differently?
– Everyone agrees that after the Russian invasion of Ukraine we need to spend more public money on defense. The energy transition is about our defense and our sovereignty. I really can’t understand why we aren’t putting more collective resources into this.
Looking back, have you made a mistake in the EU’s climate policy?
– We have not succeeded in creating sufficient climate justice. Subsidizing electric cars, solar panels, etc. has already benefited wealthy people. Those already in financial trouble will not benefit, even if they are hit hardest by rising electricity prices. Right-wing radicals and the center-right take advantage of this.
Critics say the goals are set too high.
– No. If the Russian invasion had not occurred, energy prices would have been much lower. When energy prices exploded, it was logical to give subsidies to those who needed them, but now they must be phased out. Tying future generations to fossil fuels is not a smart political move.
Elections are coming up in Sweden this fall. What do you hope for the future of Swedish politicians?
– I don’t understand what happened to you. They have always shown the world that it is possible to have a welfare state with high productivity while reducing emissions. Why is this no longer the case in Sweden? I believe and hope that you will find your way back there.
Facts.Frans Timmermans
Born: May 6, 1961 in Maastricht, Netherlands
Party: Workers’ Party (PvdA) / Alliance GroenLinks-PvdA (from 2023). In the EU he belonged to the Social Democrats (S&D) party group.
Career:
Former diplomat (stationed in Moscow, among other places) and officer in the Dutch army (Russian interpreter).
2019-2023: Vice President of the European Commission and responsible for climate policy.
2014-2019: First Vice-President of the European Commission, responsible for better regulation and the rule of law.
2012–2014: Foreign Minister of the Netherlands.
2007–2010: Dutch EU Minister.
Education: Studied French literature at Radboud University Nijmegen and European law at the University of Nancy. Speaks seven languages fluently.
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