The court decision
● The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday rejected some of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year. The main issue is the country-specific tariffs announced in April. About half of US customs revenue in 2025 will be affected.
● The court order does not directly require the Trump administration to begin repaying customs revenue wrongly collected last year. Finance Minister Scott Bessent has previously said such repayments would be required if the tariffs were struck down in court. But since Friday’s decision, the government has contented itself with saying that the matter is likely to be heard again in court for several years.
● Many companies, including makeup company Revlon and grocery giant Costco, have already filed lawsuits to recover the tariffs they paid, which have now been declared invalid.
● It is not yet clear how the court decision will affect the trade agreements the U.S. signed with other countries last year.
The new base tariff
● The basic tariff is 15 percent and will be introduced from Tuesday. After 150 days, i.e. at the end of July, Congress must approve the extension. According to the law, it should generally apply to US imports, but according to the White House there should be certain exceptions for particularly important goods and for certain trade agreements.
● According to an analysis by research firm Global Trade Alert, the new tariffs reduce the average trade-weighted tariff rate on imports into the United States from 15.3 to 11.2 percent. For the EU – and therefore Sweden – the average tariff will be increased from 11.7 to 12.5 percent, weighted by trade.
● Some observers, such as the American think tank Cato Institute, have suggested that the president could let the tariffs expire and then declare a new state of emergency and reimpose them. The law has not been tried in court and its limits are therefore unknown.
● The tariffs taking effect now are likely to be replaced by longer-term tariffs based on legislation where the court has already given the president more leeway. For example, current steel tariffs are based on a national security law, and some of the tariffs against China are based on an unfair trade conditions law. However, they require investigations that can take up to nine months. Sometimes it can happen much faster. Last year, it took 154 days, or just over five months, from the Trump administration ordering an investigation into U.S. copper imports to the president signing an order imposing new tariffs.
● Tariffs based on national security laws and unfair trade conditions typically remain in place once they are imposed. The tariffs imposed by the first Trump administration against China, among others, were never withdrawn by his predecessor Joe Biden.
● The new base tariff, like the previous tariffs, will be levied by US Customs. Formally, it is paid by the importer, that is, American companies and consumers, although in practice the tariff costs could hit foreign exporters if, for example, they are forced to lower their prices to avoid a loss of competitiveness.
The reaction of the outside world
● The EU is demanding clear answers to the question of how the court decision will affect the trade agreement concluded between European countries and the US last year. The agreement would have been voted on in the European Parliament on Tuesday, but the chairman of the trade committee wants to put the agreement on hold until the situation surrounding the new tariffs is clarified. An emergency meeting will take place in Brussels on Monday.
● Increased uncertainty has been recognized as a threat to global growth, not least business investment. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with CBS television on Sunday that she believes the new trade dispute will cause disruption for businesses.
● Reactions on global financial markets were relatively muted. Stock markets in both Europe and the US rose following Friday’s announcement, but European stock markets are more divided in Monday trading and US stock markets are expected to open the trading day in the red.
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