This is how Europe can avoid a food crisis

Climate change is already severely affecting food production in the EU, causing agricultural losses of around SEK 300 billion every year. And the consequences are likely to become increasingly serious as the temperature rises.

This is according to a new report on the EU’s future food production, prepared by the EU Climate Science Council ESABCC.

– The biggest threats so far lie in southern Europe. For example, in parts of Greece and Sicily they have been forced to give up agricultural land that could no longer be used, says Lars J. Nilsson, professor of environmental and energy systems at Lund University and member of ESABCC.

Developments in Northern Europe is more uncertain. Increased carbon dioxide levels and higher temperatures could cause some crops to grow faster. However, studies show that in this case this is associated with lower protein and nutrient content. In addition, extreme weather events are expected to cause crop destruction more frequently.

– Overall, most things point to growing insecurity across the food system, which we need to deal with if we want to maintain functioning and reliable food production in the EU, says Lars J Nilsson.

In the report, the researchers show how food production can be adapted to the climate – as well as how greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector must be reduced in order to achieve the EU’s climate goals.

– They go hand in hand. And the main message is really very simple. It is necessary to eliminate the large subsidies that are still paid for agricultural activities, which are downright bad from a climate perspective, and to introduce carrots and sticks that lead to reduced emissions and adaptation to climate change.

The measures that The need to adapt agriculture to the climate varies depending on local conditions. But broadly speaking, it may be about switching to more drought-resistant crops, growing shade hedges and tree curtains, creating catchments that can withstand heavy rainfall, and using water more efficiently.

In terms of measures to reduce agricultural climate emissions, the report’s authors believe that major efforts are needed. Compared to other sectors, agricultural emissions have not fallen much at all. They currently make up around 17 percent of the Union’s total emissions.

One problem is that many climate-intensive activities still receive large subsidies under EU agricultural support, which in turn represents the EU’s largest single expenditure and accounts for around a third of the Union’s total budget.

– There we highlight the extensive support for meat production and land support for dry peatlands, which together account for more than half of EU agriculture emissions, says Lars J Nilsson.

He emphasizes that it is not a question of all cattle disappearing, but rather that meat consumption must decrease in order to achieve climate goals. At the same time, the report shows that grazing livestock plays an important role in maintaining open landscapes and rich biodiversity.

– We are discussing the possibility to provide farmers with compensation for these types of ecosystem services. Overall, it is important that support is redirected to help farmers adapt. The country must be alive and it must be possible to make a living as a farmer.

Line Gordon, professor of sustainable development science and director of the Stockholm Resilience Center at Stockholm University, believes it is an important report.

– It clearly shows that major adjustment is needed to avoid serious problems in the future. It’s about ensuring that we can continue to have viable and robust agriculture that makes us more independent of the outside world for our own food security. The price of this conversion is small compared to what it would otherwise cost, she says.

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