A two kilometer wide passage with waves on the sea surface. The world’s gaze is on the Strait of Hormuz between the northern tip of the United Arab Emirates and the dramatic coast of Iran – one of the world’s most important trade routes for oil and natural gas.
Now it has been closed virtually overnight. Ships carry a fifth of the world’s LNG – the liquefied natural gas – and almost a quarter of the oil is ready in bundles. According to the gas exchange TTF, the company has driven up gas prices in the EU by more than 70 percent since Saturday. It is the highest level since the 2022 energy crisis.
The U.S. has said it wants to protect boats in the strait, but there was no sign of that on Wednesday.
The situation is affecting the EU’s heads of state and government hold your breath. The gas is used as a heating source in major EU countries such as Germany and Italy and its price is a sensitive issue.
– It is the consumers who have to foot the bill, says analyst Vaibhav Raghunandan from the renowned CREA, Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
It is a nightmare for the EU, which has fought hard in recent years to move away from Russian gas dependence. The EU has targeted two countries in particular: the USA and – interestingly – the dictatorship of Qatar, whose LNG deliveries accounted for between 12 and 14 percent of imports, but fell slightly last year. This is the gas that is currently not being delivered due to the standstill in the Strait of Hormuz.
There were big debates in Germany in 2022 when then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz signed a contract with Qatar.
– It is the United States that benefits from the war, says Vaibhav Raghunandan.
Two years ago, around 43 percent of the EU’s LNG imports came from the USA. Last year the value rose to 57 percent.
– We expect the number to rise to 65 percent in the US this year if the situation continues, says Vaibhav Raghunandan of CREA.
He points out that the European gas price is currently rising shockingly for two reasons. Partly because US gas is more expensive, partly because EU gas supplies are unusually low. They are currently only about 30 percent full, compared to 45 percent at the same time last year. It is the lowest level since the Ukraine war began in early 2022.
The Iran crisis comes in the middle of the EU’s biggest attempt to date to rid itself of Russian gas and oil. Despite solemn promises, progress was slow. Between March 2024 and March 2025, EU states bought fossil fuels from Russia for 22 billion euros – according to CREA calculations, this was more than the 19 billion euros with which they supported Ukraine in the war.
For gas, the big decline occurred between 2021 and 2023. Then cumulative gas imports from Russia fell by over 60 percent – but this was mainly because Russia itself blocked the gas pipelines. At the same time, EU imports of Russian LNG – the liquefied natural gas shipped by ship – increased by almost 40 percent and still remained at the same level in 2025, accounting for at least 14.5 percent of the EU’s LNG gas imports.
But now in March the major “Repower-EU” project will begin, in which the EU will completely free itself from Russian gas. It begins abruptly on March 18, when the purchase of Russian gas on the spot market will be banned. By November 2027 the EU must be completely free of Russian gas.
Henrik Wachtmeister, a specialist in Russian-European energy relations at the Institute for Foreign Policy, says there is a danger that the war will put an end to this. It’s remote, he emphasizes, but not out of the question.
– A few years ago, being dependent on the US might not have been such a problem, but today it can be said that it poses a certain risk, he says, adding:
– Should a long-term oil and gas shutdown scenario arise in the Middle East and the US decides to prioritize its own market to keep domestic prices low, the rest of the world will have to bear the consequences.
What would that mean?
– Partly because Russia earns more from the accompanying rise in oil and gas prices, and partly because the EU may have to start neglecting the schedule for phasing out the last gas from Russia, says Henrik Wachtmeister.
A danger that is approaching and is already noticeable in some cases is rising electricity prices in Sweden. The standstill in the Strait of Hormuz means that around 20 percent of global LNG exports will be lost, and that is of great importance for Europe.
“We use so much LNG here that it determines the price for all gas in Europe, and gas in turn often determines the price for electricity production,” says Henrik Wachtmeister.
However, neither gas nor electricity prices correspond to the gas crisis of 2022, when there was a physical gas shortage. According to Wachtmeister, so far it has been primarily concerns about the future that have driven up the price.
Read more:
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Carl Johan from Seth: The global economy cannot count on Trump being a coward in Iran
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